EU Wheat Market: 50,000 Monkeys Can't Be Wrong

EU wheat futures closed higher Thursday, despite the impending harvest and the pressure that traders anticipate that will cause.

Paris November milling wheat closed EUR2.50 higher at EUR143.25/tonne, London November feed wheat closed GBP1.25 firmer at GBP113.25/tonne.

Trading in London was particularly light with only 112 lots traded all day.

Various newswires say that buyers are bewildered by farmers' lack of enthusiasm for selling at knock-down prices with harvest upon them.

"Traders say they are stumped over why wheat futures remain strong given bearish fundamentals in the short-term horizon," say Dow Jones. Well, I'd hardly call the drop witnessed since the start of June 'strong', but we'll let that go for now.

Maybe the farmers are learning a lesson or two to confound the merchants? Virtually every European trading house report I am reading is saying "you'd better sell now before it gets worse, this market can only go one way and that's lower."

"Harvest pressure, burdensome stocks, huge carryover weighing on the market, lack of demand, recession etc."

Perhaps there are one or two shorts out there 'talking their own book'? Or maybe they believe it? They've said it so many times that it must be true. As they say, 50,000 monkeys can't be wrong, can they?

A market is supposed to be all about supply & demand. But what happens if we have supply, we just don't have sellers who want to let that supply go at current levels?

If the demand side want it then they'll have to up the ante a bit. If the demand side really aren't that bothered whether they have it or not, then what's all the fuss about? If they can buy it at better money elsewhere then go on and be my guest.

Suppose everybody else followed this strategy?