How Non-Threatening Is The US Weather?

The downside of non-threatening weather in the US is that whilst crop condition is fine, crop development lags.

July temperatures have continued to average -4 to -9 degrees F below normal across all Corn Belt states, says Allen Motew of QT Weather. By Thursday next week large parts of the CB will see temperatures -8 to -12 degrees F below normal, and the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecast keeps 90% of the Corn Belt averaging below normal in temperature, he says.

Monday night's USDA crop condition report showed corn 31% silking compared to 54% on the five year average, beans 44% blooming compared to 62% normally and spring wheat 84% headed versus a norm of 93%.

Despite crop conditions being largely ideal, this late development will inevitably mean harvesting a couple of weeks later than normal, leaving vulnerability to end of season weather.

For soybeans in particular, there is also the matter of very tight old crop stocks needed to last longer than ideal too.