Russian Minister Confirms Lower Grain Crop Estimate

Elena Skrynnik, the Russian Minister of Agriculture has confirmed that the country will produce 85 MMT of grain in 2009, a sharp 21.3% reduction on last season's bumper 108.1 MMT.

As of July 13, a total of 11 MMT of grains had been harvested, including 4 MMT in Krasnodar Krai, 3.5 MMT in Stavropol Krai and 2.5 MMT in Rostov oblast, she added.

The Minister did not specify how much of this season's harvest would be wheat. Last year around 59% of the Russian grain harvest was wheat, a similar proportion this time round would imply a crop of little more than 50 MMT this year.

It is likely that the Minister is erring on the side of caution, and that a final crop of 90-95 MMT will probably be closer to the truth. That would give us final wheat production this year of around 55 MMT, not the 60 MMT figure released by the USDA on Friday.