The Russians Appear To Be At It Again

Newswire reports suggest that Alexei Gordeyev, the ex-head of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, and the current governor of Voronezh, is forecasting a Russian grain harvest of just 75-80 MMT this year.

That is substantially lower than last season's 108.1 MMT, 26-30% lower in fact, and also 10 MMT under the official Ministry estimate of 85-90 MMT, and well below the estimate of 96 MMT from the US attaché.

Drought and pests have had a significant effect on Russian crops this year, he says, noting that lack of credit has led to reduced agro-chemical and fertiliser application.

A shortage of combines may also cause problems and crop losses at harvest-time, he adds.

Well, I might be the only one around here who is bullish on wheat, but even I am going to reserve judgement on this one until we have some more evidence. Weren't they forecasting a crop of 85-90 MMT last year around this time, before pulling a 108.1 MMT rabbit out of the hat?