USDA Report: Summary For Wheat


The USDA raised it's all wheat production estimate for the US to 57.5 MMT, in line with other analysts estimates. They lowered production in Argentina by 1.5 MMT to 9.5MMT, which is probably nowhere near enough, lopped 1.5 MMT off Canadian output and 1.3 MMT off the EU-27. Production estimates were raised in Russia by 1 MMT to 60 MMT despite other analysts like SovEcon lowering their estimates earlier in the week. Ukraine and Kazakhstan saw increase of half a million each.


There were only minor tweaks on the consumption front, half a million down in Canada being the most significant, global consumption was raised by around three quarters of a million tonnes.


Ending stocks were lowered in Canada by 1.2 MMT and the EU-27 (by 2.7 MMT) to 14.7 MMT. That is 3.2 MMT lower than EU-27 average for the last ten years, so much for the "we are awash with wheat" brigade. Ending stocks were raised by 1.6 MMT in the US, with only very minor tweaks elsewhere.


Argentine exports for the year ahead were reduced from 4 MMT last month to 2.5 MMT, Canadian export were dropped half a million. Increases are forecast for Kazakhstan and Russia (half a million each), and a million for Ukraine, plus half a million for the US.


Only relatively minor adjustments, amounting to an increase of 600,000 MT globally.