CBOT Closing Comments


August soybeans closed at $12.16, down ½ cent, November beans finished at $10.44, up 5 ½ cents. The USDA lowered the yield estimates from 42.6 bushels per acre on the July report to 41.7 bushels per acre on this report. Ending stocks for 2008/09 are estimated at 110 million bushels same as the July report and above the trade estimate of 104 million bushels. USDA estimated ending stocks for 2009/10 at 210 million bushels, 2 million bushels less than the average trade guess. China was a confirmed buyer of more new crop soybeans today, booking 113,000 MT. Export sales estimates for tomorrow are 250,000 to 1,000,000 MT.


September corn closed at $3.30 ¾, up 4 ¼ cents, and December at $3.36 ¼, up 5 ¼ cents. USDA pegs 2009/10 beginning stocks at 1.72 billion bushels with ending stocks at 1.621 billion bushels, with trade guesses at 1.748 and 1.697 respectively. The USDA yield estimate of 159.5 bu/acre was also towards the high end of trade estimates. The Climate Prediction Center is looking for a return to cooler than normal temperatures after the swing to above normal temperatures from August 18 through the 22nd for states north of the Texas panhandle and east of the Rockies to the Ohio River Valley. Estimates for corn export sales range from 800 to 1.2 MMT for tomorrow’s weekly report.


September wheat finished at $4.90 ¼, up 5 cents. The USDA estimates wheat production at 2.184 billion bushels, higher than the average trade guess of 2.151 billion bushels for all wheat. Export sales estimates are 300,000 to 500,000 MT for tomorrow’s report. The potential for an early frost in Canada is a concern for US wheat. This morning the northern fringes of the Canadian canola crop in the Prairie saw temperatures in the low 40’s with one reporting station seeing 33 degrees F for their morning low, according to QT Weather. Saturday and Sunday maximum temperatures will be -08 to -16 degrees below normal from Alberta through Saskatchewan and southward over the Wyoming and Colorado Rockies, they added.