Stats Canada Latest Production Estimates

Stats Canada are out today with their first crop estimates for the 2009/10 season. the survey was conducted from July 27 to August 4 and covered 14,600 Canadian farmers.

In the West, late germination caused by unfavourable conditions this spring has held back progress by about two weeks compared with normal. Yields will drop for all major crops compared with 2008. In the drought-stricken areas of Saskatchewan and Alberta, higher than normal abandonment was also shown to be a factor in the loss of production, they said. Whilst in Ontario and Quebec, excessive moisture and cool growing conditions held back growing progress.

They peg Canadian all wheat production at 23.61 MMT, which is higher than any of the trade estimates, and curiously exactly 5 MMT down on last year, representing a fall of 17.5%.

Barley output is seen at 8.95 MMT, they say, towards the low end of trade estimates, and a 24% reduction on last year's 11.781 MMT. Production was most affected by lower plantings and yield potential in Alberta, they said.

Canola production is estimated at 9.54 MMT, again towards the low end of trade ideas, and 24.5% down on last season's 12.642 MMT. Canola production on the Prairies should decline considerably, as a result of a reduction in area harvested and lower yields, with the largest declines coming in Alberta, they added.