CBOT Closing Comments


Sept soybeans finished at $9.84 ½, up 11 cents, whilst Nov finished at $9.03, down 23 ½ cents. Tight old crop stocks and short-covering after recent losses propelled the September contract to higher levels. Better than expected weekly export sales also added support. The USDA pegged US production at 88.3MMT, 1.3MMT higher than previously, they also raised soybean production in Brazil 2MMT higher to 62MMT. Additional pressure came from the USDA also raising its 2008/09 and 2009/10 soybean ending stocks from its previous forecasts, and continuing favourable crop weather over much of the Midwest, aiding soy development.


Sept corn settled at $3.14 ½, up 5 cents, Dec corn settled at $3.19 ¾, up 4 ½ cents. The USDA raised its projected 2009/10 domestic usage of corn and reduced its forecast for China’s crop production. 2008/09 and 2009/10 corn ending stocks came in below the average trade estimates and better than expected weekly export sales of corn added support as well. The USDA forecast 2009/10 global maize production 2MMT lower at 794MMT, as smaller production estimates for South America, China and the EU27 more than offset a gain of 5MMT in US production.


Sept wheat closed at $4.41 ¾, up 9 cents. Late session short-covering led futures to end in positive territory after reaching new contract lows earlier in the session. A lower US dollar index and higher than expected weekly wheat export sales also added support. The USDA estimated global wheat production 4MMT higher at 663Mt (682MMT in 2008/09) on the back of higher production in the EU and Russia. The increase in production leads to ending stocks for the 2009/10 season of 186MMT (169MMT in 2008/09).