Chinese Soybean Imports

The widely anticipated drop in Chinese soybean imports across the Aug/Oct period will not last long, according to the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC).

Although imports are expected to fall to around 2.0-2.5 MMT/month in the Aug/Oct period whilst they are busy with their own harvest and new-crop comes onto the market, monthly shipments by Nov/Dec are likely to be back up in the region of 4 MMT+ they say.

That is likely to be good news for US producers, as supplies out of South America will likely be pretty much non existent by then, leaving the US as the only shop in town until the spring.

The flip-side to that little story of course, is that it will come as a major shock to the system when China do eventually switch their imports away from the US to South America come March/April.