It's The Last Day Of September, Hurrah
It's a funny old month September, when the kids are doing your head in during the school holidays you can't wait for it to come. Then when it finally gets here it somehow always seems to fail to deliver.
It's certainly failed to deliver much in the way of rainfall that's for sure where it's been one of the warmest and driest Septembers in the UK in recent memory. The Met Office say that temperatures across the UK so far this month have hovered around four degrees above the average for September.
One of the driest parts of the UK has been the south east where there is usually 65mm of rain in September but this year there has only been 13mm.
Things aren't much better in India. The end of September also heralds the end of the monsoon season which begins on June 1st. With around 75% of the years rainfall usually falling in the four month period June-September, rains this year are now 23% down on normal. In the main wheat growing area in the northwest rains are 36% down.
That potentially could have a significant impact on wheat output in the world's second largest producer and consumer of the grain. For all the reassuring rhetoric trotted out by the government that "everything's gonna be alright" I for one am far from convinced.
I've read various stories recently suggesting that the Indian government will increase the price it pays for wheat to encourage more (and earlier) planting, and some suggesting that the wheat area will increase by 15%.
But I've also read conflicting stories that late-planted summer rice will mean it will be impossible to get wheat into the ground early, if at all, in some areas. Additionally that winter rapeseed planting potentially offers substantially better returns than wheat, and requires less water.
This is certainly a situation that warrants very close monitoring across the winter, with India's wheat production equivalent to that of Europe's top three producers of France, Germany and the UK combined.
All that rain has got to go somewhere though surely? Yes, Brazil. December London white sugar hit an all-time high of $617.70/tonne yesterday as excessive rains in Brazil continue to cause problems with the sugar cane crop.
September 30th is also the day for fixing the value of the single farm payment converted from euro's to sterling. It's typical that the pound should stage a little mini-rally on the last day, but I guess a rate of around 91p will still be viewed as a pretty decent return by most UK farmers.
It's certainly failed to deliver much in the way of rainfall that's for sure where it's been one of the warmest and driest Septembers in the UK in recent memory. The Met Office say that temperatures across the UK so far this month have hovered around four degrees above the average for September.
One of the driest parts of the UK has been the south east where there is usually 65mm of rain in September but this year there has only been 13mm.
Things aren't much better in India. The end of September also heralds the end of the monsoon season which begins on June 1st. With around 75% of the years rainfall usually falling in the four month period June-September, rains this year are now 23% down on normal. In the main wheat growing area in the northwest rains are 36% down.
That potentially could have a significant impact on wheat output in the world's second largest producer and consumer of the grain. For all the reassuring rhetoric trotted out by the government that "everything's gonna be alright" I for one am far from convinced.
I've read various stories recently suggesting that the Indian government will increase the price it pays for wheat to encourage more (and earlier) planting, and some suggesting that the wheat area will increase by 15%.
But I've also read conflicting stories that late-planted summer rice will mean it will be impossible to get wheat into the ground early, if at all, in some areas. Additionally that winter rapeseed planting potentially offers substantially better returns than wheat, and requires less water.
This is certainly a situation that warrants very close monitoring across the winter, with India's wheat production equivalent to that of Europe's top three producers of France, Germany and the UK combined.
All that rain has got to go somewhere though surely? Yes, Brazil. December London white sugar hit an all-time high of $617.70/tonne yesterday as excessive rains in Brazil continue to cause problems with the sugar cane crop.
September 30th is also the day for fixing the value of the single farm payment converted from euro's to sterling. It's typical that the pound should stage a little mini-rally on the last day, but I guess a rate of around 91p will still be viewed as a pretty decent return by most UK farmers.
