CBOT Early Calls, USDA Report Reaction

The corn production and yield numbers from the USDA came in above the average guesses. They didn't issue anything outrageous for corn and the figures were within the range of analysts estimates, but maybe not as typically cautious as the USDA normally are.

Harvested acres were reduced for corn, which tempered the increased yield estimate of 164.2 bu/acre.

Harvested area was also cut for soybeans, and yields weren't increased by very much at all, just 0.1 bu/acre to 42.4. Production therefore came in lower than expected at 3.25 billion bushels, although that is still a record.

Chinese output of beans was cut by half a million tonnes to 14.5 MMT and imports raised by a million to 39.5 MMT. Argy production was upped 1.5 MMT to 52.5 MMT.

On the wheat front global production increases were seen for the EU-27, Australia, Russia and Canada. Whilst global ending stocks rose by less than expected, US carryout was much higher than anticipated at 864 million bushels.

I'd say that the numbers are bearish wheat and corn, and slightly friendly for beans.

As often happens with these reports, they are quickly forgotten after the first half hour of trade when the trade gets back to looking at the latest weather forecasts and what the dollar is up to.

Early call: wheat down 5-10 cents, corn down 6-8 cents, beans mixed.