eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight session closed a little easier with beans and corn down around a cent or two and wheat off 5-6 cents.
There was a hint of frost in places overnight, but it certainly doesn't seem to be a killer. Another potential drop into the low 30's is seen Sunday, but the main timeframe for a serious sub-freeze looks to be October 9-10.
Export sales were very strong again for beans and corn and respectable for wheat. Actual exports themselves were also strong for corn and wheat. China was once again far and away the biggest buyer of soybeans, booking more than 800,000 MT, with the possibility that they in fact took more than a million if some of the 'unknown destinations' turn out to be Chinese.
It's a national holiday in China now through all of next week, so things should quieten down a little on that front.
FC Stone have increased their production estimates for US corn and soybeans.
Russia have admitted that their official estimate of grain production at 85 MMT was too low and increased it to 90 MMT, which is probably also too low. More serious private estimates from the likes of SovEcon are probably nearer reality at around 95 MMT.
India's summer soybean crop is seen 10% down due to drought. They will shortly begin sowing winter wheat and rapeseed, after summer rains were the lowest in almost forty years. Pakistan will also start sowing winter wheat this month, and conditions there are less than ideal too. With output from the two combined in excess of 100 MMT that situation warrants keeping an eye on.
Morocco are said to be tendering for 400,000 MT of wheat. Russia looks the favourite seller to me.
Chicago wheat got a shot in the arm from month-end short covering last night (who predicted that eh - me!), but is seen giving up much of those gains today.
Not a lot of fundamental change really. For soybeans it's tight old-crop stocks and strong demand from China versus large production round the corner. Throw in potentially record production to come from South America in the new year.
They started planting beans in Brazil's Mato Grosso a fortnight ago, and widespread rains there look like getting the crop off to a good start. Some of these early fast-growing varieties will get harvested in January to take advantage of front-end premiums.
Argy farmers will also plant a record amount of soybeans for harvesting in spring.
So China need to keep their buying boots on, it will however come as a major shock to the US system when they inevitably switch their buying attention to South America in the new year. Where will this record US production go then?
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 1 to 2 lower; soybeans called steady to 2 lower; wheat called 4 to 6 lower.
There was a hint of frost in places overnight, but it certainly doesn't seem to be a killer. Another potential drop into the low 30's is seen Sunday, but the main timeframe for a serious sub-freeze looks to be October 9-10.
Export sales were very strong again for beans and corn and respectable for wheat. Actual exports themselves were also strong for corn and wheat. China was once again far and away the biggest buyer of soybeans, booking more than 800,000 MT, with the possibility that they in fact took more than a million if some of the 'unknown destinations' turn out to be Chinese.
It's a national holiday in China now through all of next week, so things should quieten down a little on that front.
FC Stone have increased their production estimates for US corn and soybeans.
Russia have admitted that their official estimate of grain production at 85 MMT was too low and increased it to 90 MMT, which is probably also too low. More serious private estimates from the likes of SovEcon are probably nearer reality at around 95 MMT.
India's summer soybean crop is seen 10% down due to drought. They will shortly begin sowing winter wheat and rapeseed, after summer rains were the lowest in almost forty years. Pakistan will also start sowing winter wheat this month, and conditions there are less than ideal too. With output from the two combined in excess of 100 MMT that situation warrants keeping an eye on.
Morocco are said to be tendering for 400,000 MT of wheat. Russia looks the favourite seller to me.
Chicago wheat got a shot in the arm from month-end short covering last night (who predicted that eh - me!), but is seen giving up much of those gains today.
Not a lot of fundamental change really. For soybeans it's tight old-crop stocks and strong demand from China versus large production round the corner. Throw in potentially record production to come from South America in the new year.
They started planting beans in Brazil's Mato Grosso a fortnight ago, and widespread rains there look like getting the crop off to a good start. Some of these early fast-growing varieties will get harvested in January to take advantage of front-end premiums.
Argy farmers will also plant a record amount of soybeans for harvesting in spring.
So China need to keep their buying boots on, it will however come as a major shock to the US system when they inevitably switch their buying attention to South America in the new year. Where will this record US production go then?
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 1 to 2 lower; soybeans called steady to 2 lower; wheat called 4 to 6 lower.
