Ukraine Harvest/Exports Latest

Ukraine has harvested 43.3 MMT of grain in bunker weight to Oct 23, according to the Agriculture Ministry. Yields this season have averaged 2.96 MT/ha, down 15.4% on 3.5 MT/ha last season, they add.

The wheat harvest to date is 21.6 MMT, and the barley harvest 12.7 MMT. The corn harvest still needs to be wrapped up, but has currently produced 5.6 MMT. All tonnages are in bunker weight.

The country has also harvested 6 MMT of sunflower, and 504,000 MT of soybeans to date, with both harvests also still ongoing.

The Ministry forecast that this season's grain harvest will total 42.9 MMT in clean weight, a shortfall of almost 20% on the 53.3 MMT produced last year.

Despite output being sharply lower, grain exports in the current marketing year (to Oct 22) stand at 8.2 MMT, 2.5% higher than twelve months ago. Wheat exports are at 4.5 MMT, 9% up on year ago levels. Barley exports are 15% down at 2.93 MMT, and rapeseed export down by a third at 940,000 MT.

Total grain exports this season will be 16.7 MMT, say the Ag Ministry, a little over a third down on the 25.2 MMT exported in the previous marketing year. With 8.2 MMT exported already, that means that Ukraine are already almost halfway through their 2009/10 export program after only 16 weeks of the marketing year.

Either exports will dry up significantly in the second half, or their forecast is woefully understated.