US Corn Weather/Crop Progress Latest

Seldom has a USDA crop progress report been so important as tonight's will be. Last week's report showed that only 83% of the corn crop was mature as of last Sunday, compared to 97% normally. Just 17% of the corn crop had been harvested.

Let's have a look at the top five US corn states. Iowa is the biggest with an anticipated crop of 2.5 billion bushels (or over 19% of the national crop) this year according to the USDA's Oct 9th Crop Production report. After that comes Illinois with 2.1 billion bushels (16%), the Nebraska at 1.6 billion (12%), Minnesota with 1.2 billion bushels (9%) and Indiana with 900 million (7%). These states combined therefore account for almost two thirds (63%) of national output.

If we look at maturity here we see Iowa doing OK last week at 93% (98% normally). But the other four are all well behind: Illinois 79% (99%); Nebraska 78% (94%); Minnesota 84% (97%) and Indiana 77% (96%).

Harvesting in all five was also well behind: Iowa 10% (33%); Illinois 11% (68%); Nebraska 13% (34%); Minnesota 3% (31%) and Indiana 15% (49%).

It seems unlikely that harvesting progressed much last week after heavy rains hit all these states, with many recording falls 1.5-2.0 inches Thursday/Friday, bringing cumulative precipitation of 200-400% of normal so far this month:

Another stormy week is on tap for this week, with widespread 1-2 inch rains (some 3-5-inch totals too), gusty winds and more snow, say QT Weather.

Iowa, Nebraska and Minnesota appear to have a small window of opportunity now through to Wednesday, before a strong storm moves into the area Thursday. Further east Illinois and Indiana have rain in the forecast every day through to Thursday.

Trade talk for tonight's USDA crop progress report is that nationally the corn crop will be 20-25% harvested, from 17% done last Sunday.