Defra: UK Wheat/Barley Supply And Demand

Defra are out today with their latest UK cereal S&D numbers. They peg UK 2009/10 wheat production at 14.181 MMT and barley output at 6.747 MMT. For wheat that's a decrease of just over 3 MMT, or 18%. The barley harvest is up just over 600,000 MT, or 10%.

For wheat, domestic consumption levels are left relatively flat, and in line with the previous five year average at 13.678 MMT. That's the bit I don't get, their figures, as they state in their notes, take into no account whatsoever for bioethanol production increasing usage.

I know that the Ensus plant at Wilton has been a bit of a stop start affair, but surely they are going to run on something other than fresh air for the first half of 2010?

Even without any extra offtake from Ensus that leaves us with an exportable surplus of 2.161 MMT, 39% down on last season.

For barley, domestic consumption is also seen relatively flat and in line with the previous five year average, at just over 5 MMT. The big difference here however is that increased production, and a large carry-in, sees the exportable surplus rise almost 150% to just over 2 MMT.

I wonder if Ensus can run on barley?