EU Wheat Closing Comments

EU wheat closed with November London feed wheat up GBP0.10 at GBP104.75/tonne and January Paris milling wheat down EUR0.50 at EUR133.00/tonne.

The EU market continues to find support from the US, and fund buying. Soft red winter wheat plantings in the US are well behind schedule, with progress in leading SRW producer Illinois only 77% complete as of last weekend, compared to 98% normally.

Emergence in Illinois was only running at 45% as of last Sunday, with 92% normal for this time of year.

This has pushed wheat futures in Chicago, where SRW is traded, to an unusual premium over it's higher protein cousin HRW wheat traded on the KCBT.

Argentina's Agriculture Ministry said Friday that this season's wheat crop will only amount to 7 MMT, that would be their smallest crop since 1977, and show a reduction of almost 17% even on last year's drought-ravaged output.

Neighbouring Brazil has also had a smaller than expected wheat crop this year, and looks like it will be forced to buy from outside it's normal procurement area of the Mercosur bloc.

Australia are midway through their wheat harvest, and lower than expected yields are being reported, leading several analysts to trim their production estimates this week.

Egypt split it's tender this week three ways, booking French and German wheat as well as a Russian cargo. Whilst Russia, as always, remain the "team to beat" they might not quite be holding all the aces on quality. Logistics could also come into play once winter takes a hold, the Russian rail network became grid locked last winter on the approaches to Novorossiysk port on the Black Sea.