Coceral EU 2009/10 Crop Production Estimates

Coceral peg the 2009/10 EU-27 wheat crop (excluding durum) at 130.8 MMT, a reduction of 7% on last season's 140.9 MMT.

Durum wheat adds a further 8.3 MMT to the pot, giving us a total EU all wheat crop of 139.1 MMT, 7.5% down on last year's 150.5 MMT crop.

Wheat production in the UK is seen at 14.2 MMT, 18% lower than last year's 17.4 MMT. For my Irish readers, wheat production in the Republic only mustered 490,000 MT, more than 50% down on 2008/09's 1 MMT.

EU-27 soft wheat consumption in 2009/10 is seen rising slightly to 118.0 MMT, although exports are expected to fall meaning that carryout will rise a tad from 16.1 MMT to 16.7 MMT - of that 1 MMT will end up in intervention, say Coceral.

We also produced 62.2 MMT of barley with which to adorn the intervention sheds of Europe, 5% less than the 65.6 MMT knocked out in 2008/09. The UK accounted for 6.7 MMT of that (4.2 MMT of it spring barley), up half a million from last season. Ireland was at 1.1 MMT, down slightly on 1.3 MMT a year previously.

EU-27 barley consumption is seen up slightly to 54.5 MMT from 54.2 MMT, but higher opening stocks are seen pushing carryout to 20.0 MMT from 16.2 MMT a year ago. Of that intervention stocks will increase from 1 MMT to 4.5 MMT, they say.

Rapeseed production came in at 21.2 MMT, an 11% increase on the 19.1 MMT produced in 2008/09. The UK produced 1.9 MMT of that, very similar to last season. Top producer Germany knocked out a crop of 6.3 MMT this year for a 21% increase on 2008/09's 5.2 MMT. France also saw output sharply higher at 5.6 MMT, up 19% from 4.7 MMT a year ago. Poland came in third at 2.4 MMT (from 2.1 MMT last season).