Morning Markets, And Will The Real Gordon Brown Please Stand Up

The overnight grains are mostly higher, led by soybeans which are currently 10-12 cents higher (having been up 18-20 cents earlier in the session).

China's National Grain & Oils Information Centre say that the country may import even more soybeans this month than the 4.71 MMT record set in June. And there's only one place where that is going to come from, the US.

Last week's export sales of 722,550 MT bring sales for the marketing year so far to 27.81 MMT, 77% of the USDA's target for the whole of 2009/10, and we are only 13 weeks (a quarter of the year) into it.

The USDA will let us know after the close tonight how much corn still remains to be harvested in the US, my guess is around 8-10%.

ABARE report tomorrow on their latest production estimates for Australian grains, a small downwards revision might be in order.

After rising sharply on Friday on the back of an unexpected fall in US unemployment, the dollar is back under pressure today, which is also helping grains.

The pound is also weaker. After leaving Euroland interest rates unchanged at 1% last week, ECB President Trichet indicated in his accompanying speech that they may withdraw stimulus measures faster than many had expected.

No such fighting talk seems to be coming from Alistair Darling, you wouldn't be wanting to rely on that wet if things cut up a bit rough around the back of a nightclub at 2am would you? The caterpillar eyebrowed one is due to announce his latest cunning plan on how we are going to get out of this mess in in a pre-budget report on Wednesday.

The record GBP11.4 billion October deficit will be cut in half inside four years says Gordon Brown, all Darling now has to do is tell us how he's going to do it. Talking of Gordon Brown, I have a theory that he's not running the country at all. I reckon that Tony Blair is still in charge, he's who we see on the telly every night, he's simply put on a bit of weight and had a mild stroke. GB is probably locked up in a cupboard in just his pants and a vest, deep in the bowels of Downing Street somewhere.

You see if I'm not right, once Cameron gets in and goes looking for somewhere to keep his bike.