Ukraine Harvest/Exports

According to the Ag Ministry the Ukraine harvest is just about over, producing 47.8 MMT in bunker weight, which will amount to around 46.2 MMT in clean weight, they say.

That's a decrease of 13.3% on last season's output of 53.3 MMT, but better than had been expected earlier in the season when production was estimated at 42-43 MMT by the Ministry.

In bunker weight the Ministry peg wheat production at 21.6 MMT, down 19% from last season's 26.7 MMT, and barley output at 12.7 MMT (-5% from 13.4 MMT).

That implies clean weight production of around 21 MMT (2008: 25.9 MMT) of wheat and 12 MMT (2008: 12.3 MMT) of barley. Back in the summer wheat output was estimated at only around 18.5 MMT and that of barley at around 9.8 MMT.

Grain exports continue to run ahead of last season, despite this year's lower output. In the first five months of the marketing year (to 30 Nov) Ukraine exported 11.3 MMT of grains say the Ministry, an increase of 7% on 2008.

Wheat exports currently stand at 5.7 MMT (2008: 5.6 MMT) and barley exports at 3.54 MMT (4.2 MMT). Corn exports are sharply higher at 1.93 MMT (0.74 MMT). Rapeseed exports are 26% down at 1.4 MMT, they add.

Total grain exports for the full marketing year are seen at around 20 MMT (2008: 25.2 MMT).

UkrArgroConsult say that, after an early scare, 85% of the country's grain crops are now in good to fair condition, after cooler and wetter weather during October and November improved their outlook considerably.