CBOT Closing Comments


March soybean futures closed at USD9.43, up 5 ½ cents, March soymeal futures at USD277.40, up USD1.00, and March soy oil futures at 38.14, down 0.13 points. The USDA say that 2010 soybean plantings are forecast at 76.5 million acres, one million lower than in 2009. The delayed USDA soybean export sales report, now scheduled for release tomorrow, are estimated by analysts to be between 300,000 to 600,000 MT. Will Chinese buying still be in evidence? Potential South American output keeps getting bigger, surely China will be changing horses very soon?


March corn futures ended USD3.61 ¼, up 1 ½ cents, and May corn futures at USD3.75, up 1 ¾ cents. The USDA now projects 2010 US corn plantings at 88 million acres, with a crop of 12.96 billion bushels. That is 1.5 million acres more than was planted in 2009, with potential demand from the ethanol fairly and squarely behind the move. Acreage will rise further to 90 million in 2011, they said. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised it's corn production estimate for Argentina to 19.3 MMT from 18.4 MMT. That is now well above the USDA's revised projection of 17.2 MMT released on Tuesday. Export sales estimates for tomorrow range from 700,000 to 850,000 MT.


March CBOT wheat futures closed at USD4.93 ½, down 3 ¼ cents, March KCBT wheat futures were at USD5.01 ¼, down 4 ½ cents, and March MGEX wheat futures at USD5.10 ½, down 4 ¾ cents. The USDA baseline projections now peg the 2010 all wheat area at 55 million acres, with production of 2 billion bushels, that's 54.4 MMT - almost 6 MMT, or 10%, lower than the output of 2009. Despite this reduction US stocks are still very large - indeed they could probably just about manage to feed their own domestic consumption requirements without producing any wheat at all in 2010. Trade guesses for tomorrow's delayed USDA export sales report range from 300,000 to 450,000 MT.