CBOT Closing Comments


March soybeans closed 9c lower at USD9.52 1/2, March soymeal USD2.10 lower at USD279.60 and March soyoil down 52 points at 38.51 cents/pound. It was another "turnaround Tuesday" with markets giving up a significant slice of Monday's gains. A firm dollar and weaker crude oil set the tone for a correction, although reports of some rain damage in South America recently put a floor on losses. Export inspections were good on Monday, China's absence from last weeks export sales report may have been more to do with the Lunar New Year holiday than a wholesale switch to Brazil, some analysts are saying.


March corn closed 3 3/4 cents lower at USD3.67 3/4, eroding some of Monday nights gains. The USDA are expected to issue revised production numbers for US corn on Wednesday, allowing for unharvested acres that failed to get cut last autumn. Most analysts expect that they will reduce their 2009 crop estimate, although they have surprised us before! Crude oil fell back below USD80/barrel which added a bit of bearish pressure to corn. The wet summer and autumn in the US Midwest has been followed by a wet winter too, this is already causing some talk that this season's spring planting progress will be slow.


CBOT March wheat fell back below USD5, ending 9 1/2 cents lower at USD4.91 3/4, again reversing almost all of Mondays gains. The pace of US exports still lags the USDA's target for the full marketing year, and US wheat missing out on last weeks Egypt tender to the tune of USD40/tonne indicates just how of of sync US wheat has become with prices from the Black Sea and Europe. Although the US continues to pick up sales to 'the usual suspects' such as Japan, it has been some time since a surprise was revealed in the USDA's weekly export sales report. And Japan yesterday indicated that they will probably be out of the market until April.