eCBOT Close, Early Call

The overnight grains closed mixed, with soybeans around 3 cents higher, corn down 2-3 cents and wheat down 3-4 cents.

Crude oil is a little higher at USD73.62/barrel after taking a trashing and falling almost 5% yesterday. The dollar is fully steady as a few litters return and risk aversion is back on the menu.

US non-farm payroll data has disappointed, with a further 20,000 jobs lost in January, contrary to market expectations of an estimated 15,000 jobs being created last month.

Despite that though, the Labor (no, I don't know why they spell it like that either) Department did a bit of "creative accounting" and found some jobs that had fallen down the back of a filing cabinet last month. They say that the unemployment rate is now 9.7% from 10% in December. Analysts had been expecting unchanged or maybe a 0.1% increase in unemployment.

The euro is taking another pasting on concern over the plight of Greece, and other euro nations having to take some unpleasant medicine.

The trade will now start to focus on wheat the USDA are going to say in next Tuesday's S&D report. For corn 09/10 ending stocks are forecast to decline from 1.764 to 1.748 billion bushels, soybean 09/10 ending stocks are also seen being reduced, from 245 to 219 million bushels. The average trade guess even sees 09/10 wheat stocks falling from 976 to 973 million bushels.

It's a tallish, but not impossible, task for US wheat exports to match the current USDA target of 22.5 MMT, we shall see. Certainly the case for reducing soybean stocks is an easy one to make.

US wheat missed out again in Egypt's tender announced yesterday.

Australia wheat production finished at 22 MMT, according to ABARE. Some reports suggest that farmers there will plant less wheat for 2010/11, due to the current very depressed domestic prices. These have been accentuated by a sharply higher Australian dollar.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 1 to 2 lower; soybeans called 1 to 3 higher; wheat called 2 to 4 lower.