eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight grains started the week on a firmer tone, with beans ending around 7 cents higher, with corn up 4-5 cents and wheat 3-4 cents firmer.
The dollar is a little easier, and crude oil flirting with USD80/barrel, as Iran pursues it's nuclear program despite western opposition. A bit more growth optimism is also back in the market today.
Greece say that they don't want a bailout, just to be able to borrow at the same rates as everybody else. That seems to have arrested the euro's slide, at least for now.
Some reports suggest that very heavy rains in Argentina may have caused some crop losses over the weekend.
India are adamant that they will have a record wheat crop, despite some reports to the contrary. I guess IF they start exporting then we will know that they are serious. They will need to subsidise any exports heavily though, based on the Rs1,100/100kg they paid Indian farmers for wheat last year, that's USD238/tonne. Egypt bought French and Russian wheat for just USD170/tonne last week.
Russia are set to subsidise up to 3 MMT of intervention wheat to find some more export homes, according to media reports.
Although EU-27 wheat production will increase this year, it is likely to be lower in just about all the other major exporting countries, giving a global wheat crop of around 25 MMT less in 2010/11.
That will make a bit of a hole in world ending stocks, but even so inventories will remain well above average for the last ten years.
Corn stocks to usage looks set to remain fairly tight as more and more of the US crop goes into ethanol production.
There are some reports of drought damage in SW China being the "worst for 60 years". Seeing as last year the drought in the north was the "worst for 100 years" and they still supposedly brought in huge wheat and corn crops, nobody seems to be getting too excited just yet.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 3-5 cents, beans up 5-7 cents, wheat up 2-3 cents.
The dollar is a little easier, and crude oil flirting with USD80/barrel, as Iran pursues it's nuclear program despite western opposition. A bit more growth optimism is also back in the market today.
Greece say that they don't want a bailout, just to be able to borrow at the same rates as everybody else. That seems to have arrested the euro's slide, at least for now.
Some reports suggest that very heavy rains in Argentina may have caused some crop losses over the weekend.
India are adamant that they will have a record wheat crop, despite some reports to the contrary. I guess IF they start exporting then we will know that they are serious. They will need to subsidise any exports heavily though, based on the Rs1,100/100kg they paid Indian farmers for wheat last year, that's USD238/tonne. Egypt bought French and Russian wheat for just USD170/tonne last week.
Russia are set to subsidise up to 3 MMT of intervention wheat to find some more export homes, according to media reports.
Although EU-27 wheat production will increase this year, it is likely to be lower in just about all the other major exporting countries, giving a global wheat crop of around 25 MMT less in 2010/11.
That will make a bit of a hole in world ending stocks, but even so inventories will remain well above average for the last ten years.
Corn stocks to usage looks set to remain fairly tight as more and more of the US crop goes into ethanol production.
There are some reports of drought damage in SW China being the "worst for 60 years". Seeing as last year the drought in the north was the "worst for 100 years" and they still supposedly brought in huge wheat and corn crops, nobody seems to be getting too excited just yet.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 3-5 cents, beans up 5-7 cents, wheat up 2-3 cents.
