Huge Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimates 'Pie In The Sky'

Some crop estimates pegging this season's Brazilian soybean crop as high as 68 MMT are "pie in the sky", according to respected private consultant Kory Melby's blog (here).

He says that 64 MMT is nearer the mark with Asian Rust and recent searing temperatures taking the top off yields, with some fields "seriously hurt".

Even so, 64 MMT is still a pretty hefty 12% increase on last year's 57 MMT, and comfortably sets a new record production number.

His blog is another that also reports of severe logistical problems in Mato Grosso, with trucks lined up for 25 miles attempting to get into rail terminals destined to take beans to Santos.

The situation has depressed local ex farm cash prices, pushing levels below the cost of production, he says.

One of the reasons behind the logistical problems is the large volume of last season's government-owned corn still sitting in the silos of Mato Grosso. This means that winter corn growers without storage are now having to take whatever they can get for corn, said to be only around 50% of the state-set minimum price of R$13.20 per 60kg sack.

Other reports talk of grain elevators in the region having to store winter corn on the ground for the second year running. It's early days yet, but already there is talk of this situation having a negative impact on both corn and soybean plantings for next season.

Conab have today released their latest estimate on Brazilian soybean production, pegging the crop at 66.7 MMT, the IBGE now say 66.1 MMT and Celeres 65 MMT.

In Mato Grosso, Brazil's top producing state, the soybean harvest is now 25% done, according to Celeres, whilst in Parana, the second biggest producer, the harvest has advanced to 8% complete.