Brazilian Soybean Crop 'Not As Good As Advertised'
I read with interest today on the excellent Brownfield Ag Network website that Bob Streit, a crop consultant with Central Iowa Agronomics returning from a recent visit to Brazil, says that crops there "look good — but perhaps not quite as good as advertised."
Wet weather seems to have delayed plantings and led to increased rust incidences, taking the top off yields a bit. Read the full story of what he has to say here.
That ties in with what private Brazilian consultant Kory Melby has been saying for months now. Whilst talk of 68 MMT of soybeans makes good press "it is only a matter of time before we hear talk of a smaller soybean crop in Brazil."
Even so of course, if we are talking 64 MMT or 68 MMT - or somewhere in between - it's still a record. Ditto Argentina at 50 MMT, 51.5 MMT or 53 MMT? That said, the bigger numbers towards the upper end of those ranges are already in the marketplace so maybe something closer to 64 MMT and 50 MMT is modestly bullish?
I still subscribe to the notion that logistics and physical availability (or lack of it) will be more important than ever this summer. US stocks are tight, the USDA will reveal just how tight on Wednesday. Consumers have left themselves short in the confident knowledge that massive crops were coming from South America.
There's just one problem, those massive crops ARE still in South America, and that isn't much use if you need soymeal in Europe tomorrow is it?
Wet weather seems to have delayed plantings and led to increased rust incidences, taking the top off yields a bit. Read the full story of what he has to say here.
That ties in with what private Brazilian consultant Kory Melby has been saying for months now. Whilst talk of 68 MMT of soybeans makes good press "it is only a matter of time before we hear talk of a smaller soybean crop in Brazil."
Even so of course, if we are talking 64 MMT or 68 MMT - or somewhere in between - it's still a record. Ditto Argentina at 50 MMT, 51.5 MMT or 53 MMT? That said, the bigger numbers towards the upper end of those ranges are already in the marketplace so maybe something closer to 64 MMT and 50 MMT is modestly bullish?
I still subscribe to the notion that logistics and physical availability (or lack of it) will be more important than ever this summer. US stocks are tight, the USDA will reveal just how tight on Wednesday. Consumers have left themselves short in the confident knowledge that massive crops were coming from South America.
There's just one problem, those massive crops ARE still in South America, and that isn't much use if you need soymeal in Europe tomorrow is it?
