Ukraine Grain Stocks Dwindling

The combination of lower 2009 production and maintaining exports at a furious pace leaves grain stocks in Ukraine sharply lower year-on-year.

As of March 1st the country's grain stockpile stood at 12.8 MMT, according to the State Committee of Statistics, 21% down on the same date a year previously.

Wheat reserves were 5.8 MMT, barley 3.1 MMT, corn 2.4 MMT and rye 0.6 MMT, they say.

Given that the country consumes around 1 MMT of wheat a month itself, according to the USDA, and we still have four months of the current marketing year to go, that potentially leaves wheat ending stocks rather tight.

Especially so when you consider that we are entering a new marketing year, where production is set to be lower again due to a combination of a hard winter and reduced inputs whether enforced by soil conditions and/or lack of credit.