EU Rapeseed Outlook

EU rapeseed production in 2010 is seen slightly lower than last year, despite a 5% increase in planted area.

Coceral say that we will produce 20.77 MMT this season, around half a million tonnes or 2.6% down on 2009. Planted area will be 6.8 million hectares they say, up more than 300,000 ha, but yields will fall to 3.05 MT/ha from a bumper 3.29 MT/ha in 2009.

Oil World concur, saying that EU-27 output will come in at 21 MMT, 2.4% down on last year. The key driver seems to be an anticipated return to normal yields in France and Germany from the records witnessed twelve months ago.

France saw yields average 3.78 MT/ha last season, whilst in Germany they broke through the four tonne mark coming in at an unprecedented 4.29 MT/ha, according to Coceral.

Of course it's early days yet, nobody was forecasting anything like those kind of yields this time twelve months ago either.

Strong demand looks set to continue to support prices, with Oil World pegging the 2010/11 EU-27 crush at 23.3 MMT, up 2.5% from 2009/10. They say that the EU-27 will import 3 MMT of rapeseed in the coming season, although potential changes to legislation may make it more difficult for some exporting countries to gain access to EU homes.

EU rapeseed is the only product in the grains/oilseeds sector to have risen during 2010. May Paris rapeseed closed at EUR307.00/tonne last night, EUR15 higher (+5%) than the 31st Dec 2009 close of EUR292.00/tonne.