Australian Crop Estimates

ABARE have tweaked their 2010/11 Australian crop production estimates slightly overnight. They now peg this season's wheat crop at 22.1 MMT, up 200,000 on their previous estimate and 400,000 MT higher than output last year.

They've reduced their barley production estimate by 700,000 MT from last time to 7.3 MMT, a significant 12% decrease on 2009.

Rapeseed production will total 1.96 MMT this year, they say. That's only marginally higher than last season and probably a bit on the low side. The Australian Oilseeds Federation yesterday pegged the crop at 2.2 MMT.

Overall early crop conditions look good in the east. "Rainfall between March and May was the most widespread above-average rainfall to be recorded over the eastern states since 2003," ABARE said. Although they did note the potential for locust damage later in the season.

Western Australia continues to have dryness in many areas, and rainfall in the coming months will be "crucial" here, they noted.