Russian Ministry Cut Grain Production Estimate
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture have cut their estimate for grain production this season from 97 MMT to 88-90 MMT.
They've been out on limb and far too optimistic for a while now, suggesting that production would match last season when winterkill instances have been much higher.
Even so, 88-90 MMT is still towards the upper end of estimates from the likes of SovEcon who say 84-89 MMT.
For what it's worth, last season wheat accounted for 64% of the total Russian grain crop. With much higher levels of winterkill this season, that may fall to around 60-62% this time round. If we use a ballpark middle ground of a grain crop of around 87 MMT, that suggests a Russian wheat crop of around 52-54 MMT this year, some 12-16% down on last year's 61.7 MMT.
They've been out on limb and far too optimistic for a while now, suggesting that production would match last season when winterkill instances have been much higher.
Even so, 88-90 MMT is still towards the upper end of estimates from the likes of SovEcon who say 84-89 MMT.
For what it's worth, last season wheat accounted for 64% of the total Russian grain crop. With much higher levels of winterkill this season, that may fall to around 60-62% this time round. If we use a ballpark middle ground of a grain crop of around 87 MMT, that suggests a Russian wheat crop of around 52-54 MMT this year, some 12-16% down on last year's 61.7 MMT.
