EU Grains Closing Comments

EU grains closed mixed Monday, with November London wheat GBP0.50 lower at GBP118.50/tonne; November Paris wheat ending EUR0.75 lower at EUR160.75/tonne; November corn rose EUR1 to EUR161.50/tonne; November Paris rapeseed was EUR0.75 higher at EUR348/tonne; November Paris malting barley was EUR4.25 higher at EUR179.25/tonne.

The market still seems a little disappointed that the USDA didn't reduce world wheat production by more than the 7.5 MMT than is did on Friday. However, they are notoriously slow to react to rapid changes in the market. German analysts F O Licht today cut their 2010/11 global wheat estimate to 656.37 MMT, fully 5 MMT below the USDA.

For good measure they also came out with a world corn crop estimate a whopping 28 MMT beneath our friends in Washington. Clearly they can't both be right.

Intriguingly, the German wheat estimate actually included a Russian crop of 56 MMT, 3 MMT more than the pooh-poohed USDA figure. Many in the trade are now talking only 48-50 MMT here, so it could be that even F O Licht's estimate is too high.

Early reports coming out of Germany suggest that barley yields this season are looking likely to be 10% lower than last year. There seems to be some genuine concern that wheat and corn could fare even worse when the combines start rolling into those fields.

For now we seem to have risen enough for the time being however, until we get some further hard evidence of lower yields in France, Germany and the UK, once the wheat harvest gets underway.