EU Wheat Mixed Ahead Of Harvest Evidence

EU grains closed mixed Tuesday, with November London wheat GBP0.10 lower at GBP118.40/tonne; November Paris wheat ending EUR1.50 higher at EUR161.75/tonne; November corn fell EUR0.50 to EUR161.00/tonne; November Paris rapeseed was EUR6.25 higher at EUR354.25/tonne; November Paris malting barley fell EUR0.25 higher at EUR179.50/tonne.

A cooler, wetter forecast was enough to take the sting out of the recent rally, although many participants doubt how beneficial this will be at this late stage.

At home rains eventually arrived into the main growing areas in the south east, although some growers there that I am talking to said that they'd have preferred the dry conditions to have remained.

"Rain now is too late to do any good, if anything it will only hinder harvest progress," said one.

"Rain may slow it down a bit and also even the ripening but I am hoping that it stays fine now till the harvest is done, for fear that if the weather does change, it will rain for a month," said another.

"Until we had a huge rainstorm at the beginning of June, I was very pessimistic about yields. That one rain event will put a lot of money in the bank, because we have had bugger all rain since," he added.

It seems to be developing into an exceptionally difficult year to evaluate, with the recent price spike reputedly catching out several "short and caught" merchants.

That said, I am hearing reports of some growers already likening the recent rally to "just the beginning" of a 2007-style boom all the way back to GBP200/tonne.

At least Liffe seem to be doing alright out of it, they reported record volumes last week. Is that fund money re-entering the market, or just wishful thinking? I suspect that it might have a lot to do with merchants hedging their bets as consumers avoid the market like the plague myself.