Show Me The Money

The Russian Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) say that Russia won't export wheat from it's state-owned stockpiles (of around 9.5 MMT) "as domestic flour millers and livestock farmers are facing a shortage." That would leave a similar quantity of carryover stocks from last season still in private hands available to export, but they said that they "don't exclude" the possibility of a restrictive grain export duty from 2011."

Imagine that you're a grain merchant sitting on some of these private stocks. The wheat price has just shot up over USD50/tonne in only a couple of weeks, you can suddenly make much better money than you'd ever dreamed of. The government might impose a ban once the harvest is over and the dark and icy winter is upon us, especially if autumn planting doesn't go too well.

What would you do? Take the money & run, shipping the stuff out of there as fast as you can whilst the door is still open? Or sit on it hoping for more, all the while knowing that the door could slam shut any minute and without notice?