What Will This Afternoon Bring?

You'd have expected a profit-taking month-end sell off normally, but things suddenly aren't "normal" any more. Early calls for CBOT this afternoon are higher: corn up 2-4c, wheat up 8-10c, soybeans up 6-8c.

Stats Canada are due out later today with their estimates on Canadian grain and oilseed production for 2010. It would seem entirely possible that they may provide some more fodder for the bulls with sharply lower wheat, barley and OSR production numbers.

The damage is already done in Russia it would seem, attention is already turning to 2011. How much worse can things get if they start planting winter grains in these sort of conditions? They're normally into winter sowing by the end of August in some regions, and what would another hard winter on top of planting in dust do to 2011 prospects? There won't be much in the way of carryover stocks in Russia to cope with another crisis in 2011 will there?

Christ this thing could run up another fifty quid yet quite easily, especially if we get winter plantings in dust followed by the early arrival of winter. Come the spring the Black Sea and cheap Eastern European sellers with have emptied the shed.

Buy, buy.