Morning Thought

Despite being away on holiday I am keeping my hand in by still updating the evening reports, it's a good excuse to slope away for an hour or two to be honest!

CBOT soybeans closed below USD10/bushel last night I see, and the overnights are a tad lower again, as indeed they are for wheat and corn too.

Having moved up the furthest on the rally that came almost from nowhere in July, then I guess it's logical that wheat looks the most vulnerable to further downside.

The situation in Russia/Kazakhstan/Ukraine seems to have at the very lest stabilised, and quite likely improved somewhat. Temperatures have certainly cooled a lot and rain has arrived in varying amounts in most areas.

Not a drought buster yet, but definitely a step in the right direction.

Now that the Russian news has been consigned to the history folder the bulls need something new to hang their hats on. Remember that they must be fed every day.

The looming US harvest is the next thing for them to "bull up" and indeed many are already furiously doing just that. There's isn't really to much bulling up they can do with regards to wheat, the winter crop is just about all in and the spring crop is well advanced and looking good.

The best they can do for wheat is point to a potentially smaller US corn crop than the USDA currently project. Yet, frustratingly for the bulls, the USDA upped their crop condition ratings this week.

After that we have a much-hoped for increase in the percentage of ethanol used in gasoline. Although that particular carrot has been in front of the donkey for some time now, and we've seen deadlines come and go on that one before.

For soybeans, the bulls have SDS and continued strong Chinese demand. We also had crop conditions declining a little this week.

Historically however we have a strong seasonal tendency for both the soybean and corn markets to put in it's yearly lows in October. I don't really see any huge reason for that not to be the case this year either.

Right, today I have an appointment with a horse at 10am, I trust that they've selected a suitably robust animal. I somehow suspect that my hopes of winning the Grand National one day are about to be cruelly dashed on the rocks of fate....