Open The Back Doors, The Gas Man's Coming

Interesting how wheat seems to have, partially at least, divorced itself from beans, and to a lesser degree corn. I guess it shouldn't be too surprising, Russian wheat defaults hardly make much difference to soybean demand do they? Egypt have been a featured buyer of US corn this past fortnight though, taking 240,000 MT in yesterday's weekly export sales report.

For wheat, speculation amongst the popular newswires that Russia will have to import anything up to 5 MMT of grains in 2010/11 got the market going yesterday. Even so, there is no hard evidence that they will. Certainly it's highly unlikely I'd suggest that they will enter the open market to buy anything.

Ukraine's harvest might be down, but with the official carryover stocks numbers that they have, there should be more than ample supplies there this year. I wonder if the government's "shall we shan't we" approach to an export embargo is really a smokescreen whilst they "wait for a call" from Russia?

It tends to get a tad chilly in Ukraine in the wintertime and Russia have a nasty habit of cutting off the gas if the bill isn't paid on time, as you may recall. Ukraine may have just hit on a way of ensuring that the gas man's finger isn't quite so twitchy this winter, if you get my drift.

Then there's always "Stan" next door to lean on too.

If there is any importing going on this season, and personally I still think it's a fairly sizable if, it is highly unlikely to be going on via the world stage I'd suggest, more likely via the back door.