Strategie Grains Cut EU-27 Soft Wheat Production Estimate

French analysts Strategie Grains have today cut their EU-27 2010/11 soft wheat production estimate to 128.2 MMT, that's down 1% from last month and 2.5 MMT below last season's output. Two months ago they were forecasting production almost 5 MMT higher than that.

The EU-27 barley crop is now pegged at 53.0 MMT, 1.1 MMT down on last month and 14% below 2009's harvest. They also cut their corn production estimate for the coming harvest by 1.1 MMT to 57.0 MMT.

(MMT) 2010/11 2009/10 Y-o-Y Change
Soft wheat 128.2 130.7 -2.5
Barley 53.0 62.1 -9.1
Corn 57.0 57.1 -0.1

They also increased their forecast for EU-27 soft wheat exports in the current season by 3 MMT to 18.7 MMT. That sounds bullish, although in reality it only brings us back into line with the 18.8 MMT exported during 2009/10.

The most bullish number was the revision of US soft wheat exports up by 6 MMT to 33.6 MMT, a figure 9.7 MMT up on 2009/10 following the withdrawal of Russia from the world stage.