Overnight Developments

Influential analysts FCStone cut their US corn and soybean production estimates for 2010 after the close of Chicago last night.

They trimmed corn yields to 162.9 bu/acre compared to the USDA's now widely disregarded 165 bu/acre estimate. Production this year is set to come in at 13.195 billion bushels they said, down from their estimate of 13.43 billion last month and the USDA's 13.365 billion.

Soybean yields were also pared back slightly to 43.5 bu/acre from 44 bu/acre last month. Output is now seen at 3.39 billion bu from 3.428 billion last month and the USDA's 3.433 billion.

Reductions were expected, if anything probably larger ones than these. Many in the trade seem to be thinking that final corn yields will come in nearer to 160 bu/acre.

Informa are out with their estimates on Friday, we must then wait a whole week before getting the USDA's version of events.

Before that we have the usual weekly export sales report this afternoon. Trade estimates are for wheat sales of 750 to 950 TMT, corn sales of 1 to 1.3 MMT and soybean sales of 700 to 900 TMT.