CBOT Closing Comments

08/10/10 - Soybeans

November soybeans closed at USD11.35, up 70 cents; October soybean meal closed at USD317, up USD25.00; October soybean oil closed at 46.22, up 243 points. A very bullish USDA report, particularly for corn, set the tone, with soybeans opening limit up and staying that way. The USDA pegged the 2010 US soybean crop at 3.408 billion bu on yield of 44.4 bpa. That's down from 3.483 billion and 44.7 bpa last month, but still the largest US crop in history! The bull surprise in the pack for soybeans was them slashing their ending stocks estimate to 265 million from 350 million last month.


December corn closed at USD5.28 1/4, up the 30 cent limit; March corn closed at USD5.37 1/2, also up 30 cents. The USDA slashed it's 2010 US corn yield estimate to 155.8 bushels/acre, 6.7 bpa lower than last month and 4.2 bpa below the average trade guess. That cut production to 12.664 billion bushels from 13.160 billion last months and 147 million bushels below the lowest trade estimate. Ending stocks came in at 902 million bushels, 95 million less than the lowest trade estimate. The EPA decision on whether to move towards E15 (15% inclusion of ethanol in gasoline) is expected to be announced in a week.


December CBOT wheat closed at USD7.19 1/4, up 60 cents; December KCBT wheat closed at USD7.58 1/2, up 59 cents; December MGEX wheat closed at USD7.64 1/2, up 58 cents. Spillover strength from corn propelled wheat to close at or near daily trading limits. The average trade guess for ending stocks was 873 million bushels. USDA came in at 853 million, 49 million lower than last month. They also cut world wheat production by 1.6 MMT, including a 300,000 MT reduction for Canada tp 22.2 MMT, whilst world consumption was raised by more than 2 MMT.