EU Wheat Close

29/10/10 -- Nov10 London wheat ended Friday GBP0.50 lower at GBP170.25/tonne, whilst Nov11 wheat was GBP0.25 higher to GBP145.00/tonne.

Nov10 Paris wheat was EUR1.25 higher at EUR225.00/tonne, with Nov11 up EUR1 to EUR196.25/tonne.

Nov10 London wheat rose GBP8.50/tonne on the week, with Nov11 up GBP6.75/tonne. In Paris, Nov10 gained EUR15.50/tonne with Nov11 EUR10.50 higher.

A resurgent pound capped London gains. A growing feeling that the current tightness could get carried into 2011/12 is starting to see new crop values almost keep pace with old crop increases now.

Brussels awarded 389,000 MT of soft wheat export licences this past week, bringing the cumulative total to date for the current marketing year to 8.1 MMT, a 35% increase on 6 MMT at the same time last year.

It is worth noting however that EU-27 export pace picked up somewhat during the second half of last season, the reverse is likely to be true this time round.

IF the current export pace of 450,000 MT a week was to be maintained for the rest of the season then ending stocks would fall to 8.6 MMT - the lowest figure I can find going back as far as the late 1980's - and the equivalent of just 25 days worth of consumption.

If not, and we finish the season with exports of 21 MMT and ending stocks of 11 MMT, as currently predicted by the USDA, then these would be the lowest since 2003/04.