Nogger's Blog

28/10/10 -- This market isn't showing any signs of dying anytime soon. Having just completed an in depth market report for one of my clients I found myself getting more and more bullish with every page I wrote.

From a UK perspective we have the strong export pace of wheat, only a modest increase in planted area for 2011 coupled with a new bioethanol plant to feed. Add to that a currency that is about as popular as root canal surgery and it's rather difficult to whip up too much bearish enthusiasm.

The Germans have just agreed to up the inclusion rate of bioethanol in petrol from 5% to 10%.

We've got a La Nina-induced drought threatening US wheat on the Great Plains and a severe drought in Western Australia.

Throw into the mix China buying soybeans like they're going out of style. They're expected to import 5.6 MMT in October, which would be their second highest monthly total of the year, in a harvest month that is traditionally a quiet one for them.

Then there's reports of China's domestic corn reserves running at less than a months supply, Russian winter grain plantings well down and late planted, ditto Ukraine, export embargos and quotas to contend with, and that's before we see what other nasty surprises Mother Nature has in store this winter.