Nogger's Blog

26/11/10 -- Soybeans

Jan 11 soybeans closed at USD12.38 1/2, down 16 1/2 cents; Mar 11 soybeans closed at USD12.47, down 15 3/4 cents; Dec 10 soybean meal closed at USD336.80, down USD3.40,
Dec 10 Soybean Oil closed at 49.90, down 34 points. Weekly export sales were 673,900 MT, below trade estimates for sales of 850,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. Featuring in amongst this week's sales was 40,000 MT to the UK. This week's number however doesn't include the monster 780,000 MT that China bought earlier in the week. The strong US dollar didn't help soybean's cause in a subdued trading session following on from yesterday's Thanksgiving holiday.

Corn

Dec 10 corn closed at USD5.38 1/4, down 1/2 cent; Mar 11 corn closed at USD5.53, down 3/4 cent; May 11 corn closed at USD5.60 3/4, down 3/4 cent. Export sales were up 55 percent from the four week average at 823,000 MT for 2010/11 delivery. That was towards the top end of trade estimates for sales of 400-900,000 MT. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimate the Argentine corn crop at 21-22 MMT this season, down slightly from last year and significantly below the 25 MMT currently estimated by the USDA. Even so they are still an export force to be reckoned with, and are apparently in talks with Russia to supply them with up to 3 MMT of corn in 2011.

Wheat

Dec 10 CBOT wheat closed at USD6.48 1/4, up 3/4 cent; Dec 10 KCBT wheat closed at USD7.20 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 10 MGEX wheat closed at USD7.34, up 1 cent. Net weekly export sales were 745,200 MT, with Egypt taking 181,200 MT. Estimates were for sales of 500-800,000 MT. With Russian winter plantings significantly down there's a lot of pressure to expand spring sowing, however the President of the Russian Grain Union sees difficulties here due to a shortage of seed, fertilizer and machinery. SovEcon's early estimate on grain production in 2011 is 80 MMT, still far short of production of around 100 MMT in 2008 and 2009, and only just above the level of domestic consumption of around 77 MMT.