Nogger's Blog

09/11/10 -- Soybeans

CBOT Jan soybean futures settled 54 1/4c higher at USD13.29; December soymeal finished USD17.40 higher at USD362.30; Dec soyoil ended 139 points higher at 53.40. The regular curve ball from the USDA came this month in the form of a surprise reduction in US soybean yields, and therefore production, plus sharply lower ending stocks. Ending stocks were in fact 30% down on last month to 185 million bushels. That cuts stocks to use to 5.5% or the equivalent of just 20 days worth of supply. World soybean ending stocks were almost unchanged at 61.41 MMT. China's import requirements for 2010/11 were raised 2 MMT to 57 MMT.

Corn

Dec corn ended down 9c at USD5.76 1/4 a bushel; Mar corn was also down 9c to USD5.90 1/4 a bushel. Corn opened higher on spillover support from beans but fell lower as the session wore on. Corn yields and production were cut a bit more than expected by the USDA today, but nowhere near the magnitude of that for soybeans. The USDA reduced projected exports by 50 million bushels and feed usage was also dropped by 100 million bushels. On a global level world corn ending stocks were reduced by 3.2 MMT to 129.2 MMT, even though they upped Chinese production 2 MMT to 168 MMT.

Wheat

CBOT Dec wheat ended down 14 1/2c at USD7.21 3/4 a bushel; KCBT Dec wheat fell 8 1/2c to USD7.87; MGEX Dec wheat dropped 8 1/4c to USD7.95 1/2. As with corn, wheat opened higher in sympathy with beans but quickly fell away. The USDA cut US ending stocks slightly, but at at 848 million bushels that is a very comfortable 34.7% stocks to use ratio. They also dropped world wheat ending stocks by 2.2 MMT to 174.7 MMT. Nearby production prospects in Australia and Argentina were also raised. World wheat feeding increased by 2.5 MMT with China taking 2 MMT of that.