Nogger's Blog

10/11/10 -- CBOT corn and wheat sold off during the second half of last night's session on ideas that there wasn't really anything that bullish in the USDA report for them. The overnight grains are mixed, but trending a little higher from earlier this morning.

Egypt are tendering for wheat again today, it will be interesting to see which way that one goes.

Chinese customs data shows that October soybean imports were considerably less than many had forecast - 3.73 MMT. That may be down to them resolving their dispute with Argentina over soyoil imports.

The USDA report? What an enormous crock of s**t, it's hardly worth getting the bus out to drive through some of the enormous holes and gaffs it contained. If they had one shred of credibility left then it's surely gone.

Not only did China's corn crop increase by 2 MMT this season to a whopping 168 MMT, but last year's drought-ravaged crop was also increased by 2 MMT.

What size was Argentina's wheat crop last year? According to just about everybody except the USDA it was 7.5 MMT or thereabouts. Yet they have it at 10.5 MMT, 40% more than everybody else, for a crop that was harvested almost a year ago.

Intriguingly, I've only just noticed that number as I had it in my head that the USDA had stood by an old forecast of 9.6 MMT for some time. It seems however that they slipped through an extra 900,000 MT in September.

September's report was itself such a shocker, as you will recall, that that particular piece of minutiae passed me by until this morning.

Aren't these guys are supposed to be the global authority on grains? I wouldn't put them in charge of a sweet shop.