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10/01/11 -- Soybeans

March soybeans rose 15 1/2 cents to USD13.80 1/2; March soymeal traded USD7.90 higher at USD370.60; March soyoil climbed 31 points to 57.13. China imported 54.8 MMT of soybeans in 2010, according to customs data - an increase of 29% on 2009. Argentina got some weekend rains in the south but the northern two-thirds of the grain belt got less rainfall, if any, and saw crop potential worsen with hot temperatures, say Martell Crop Projections. One analyst says that the soybean crop there now "isn't likely to top 40 million tons" - fully 12 MMT less than the USDA's December estimate. The USDA are out Wednesday with revised numbers for January. Weekly export inspections at 38.3 million bushels were almost double last week's total.


March corn closed up 12c at USD6.07; May corn ends up 11 3/4c at USD6.15 1/2 a bushel. Corn rebounded from last week's losses, contrary for expectations in some quarters of heavy fund rebalancing. The USDA export inspections report showed 20.6 million bushels inspected for export, almost 5 million up on last week. Weather concerns in Argentina remain, with one analyst saying that production there this season "is unlikely to top 17.5 MMT" - the USDA said 25 MMT just last month. The USDA are expected to make slight downwards revisions to US corn yields and production for 2010 on Wednesday.


CBOT March wheat closed down 6 3/4 cents at USD7.67 1/4; KCBT March wheat fell 4 3/4 cents to USD8.41 1/2; MGEX March wheat slid 5 1/2 cents to USD8.65 1/4. Fund rebalancing may have accounted for some of wheat's losses today. Spillover support from beans and corn helped limit downside. Egypt buying US wheat over the weekend was supportive. Unrest is growing in other North African nations with riots last week in Tunisia and Algeria over rising food prices. The former bought wheat in a tender last week and the latter announced plans to buy wheat in a tender today. Morocco also made moves to subsidise wheat imports. Fifty percent of China’s winter wheat crop is seeing serious drought, say QT Weather, adding that "severe to extreme drought has set and no end is in sight".