Nogger's Blog

11/01/11 -- Jan London wheat closed GBP0.05 lower at GBP195.55/tonne, with new crop Nov GBP0.25 higher at GBP168.00/tonne. Mar Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR254.00/tonne, whilst new crop Nov fell EUR1.50 to EUR227.00/tonne.

It was a quiet subdued session, with little movement either way ahead of tomorrow's important USDA data on global supply and demand, US production for 2010 for soybeans and corn plus US wheat plantings.

Trade estimates for the latter vary quite widely, from 39.377-43.200 million acres compared to 37.335 million a year ago. That represents an increase of around 5-15%, albeit from the lowest acreage in almost 100 years.

There are plenty of question marks worldwide over wheat production in 2011. Severe drought in Northern China, incessant rain in Australia and drought and freezing temperatures in the Great Plains amongst them.

Despite soaring world prices anxious buyers keep coming back to feed. Turkey became the latest to pay up buying 300,000 MT of mostly US wheat today.

Early indications out of Ukraine suggest that they may harvest 21 MMT of wheat in 2011, up 22% from 2010, according to UkrAgroConsult.

Masstock warn that much of the UK's winter rapeseed crop may have been hard hit by this winter's early and sharp arrival. Lack of attention to winter hardiness looks like providing the industry with a "major wake-up call" this year, they say.