Morning Snippets

05/01/11 -- Wheat and corn are down on the overnight Globex market, and beans (were but aren't any more) slightly firmer.

Leading South American analyst Michael Cardonnier has cut his Argentine soybean production estimate to 45 MMT from 48 MMT just a week ago, and now fully 7 MMT less than the traditionally slow to react USDA.

Meanwhile the corn crop there seems to be shrinking rapidly too. The Rosario Grain Exchange now estimate it at 21.3 MMT, a report on Reuters today citing an Ag Ministry official pegs down to 20 MMT, and Michael Cardonnier now says 19.5 MMT. That's a sharp drop on early season hopes for a crop of 26 MMT and the USDA's latest estimate of 25 MMT.

Those lovable scamps at the USDA get to reveal their latest Argie crop estimates with the release of their WASDE report next Wednesday. Get your finger out Tibbs. Phnaargh, phnaargh.

Farm Futures Magazine report in their survey into 2011 US planting intentions - corn at 89.93 million acres (from 88.222 million in 2010), and beans at 77.42 million acres (from 77.714 million). They also see winter wheat area up 14% to 42.37 million acres. Combined winter and spring wheat acreage may total 59.22 million, up more than 10% from 53.6 million in 2010, they say.

FoodChina say that 2010 wheat output in the country was 112.8 MMT and that will rise to 115.8 MMT in 2011. Yeah, right, steady as you go lads. I'm expecting a knock on the door from the Triads at any minute. Mind you I don't suppose that they do actually knock on the door when they come round do they?

In Ukraine winter wheat is rated 56.5% good to excellent, 37.1% good, and only 6.3% poor which is quite a bit better than twelve months ago.

Eyeing ever increasing world grain prices, Belarus says that it will increase agricultural production by 7-8% in 2011.

Aggressive early season exporters Bulgaria may now need to import wheat this season for the first time since 2004, according to the head of the nation's Union of Millers. Sound familiar?

The cost of a loaf of bread in the UK is set to rise, the FT shockingly reveals today (here). Didn't see that one coming did we?