Nogger's Blog

10/02/11 -- The overnight grains were mixed to mostly lower with wheat down around 6-8c, and corn/beans a cent higher to a cent lower.

Weekly export sales from the USDA were strong for corn and in line with expectations for beans and wheat. Corn sales were 1.2 MMT old crop and 104,500 MT new crop against forecasts of 750-950 TMT. Bean sales were only 20,800 old crop but 950 TMT new crop versus trade ideas of 800 TMT-1 MMT. Wheat sales were 391 TMT old crop and 116 TMT new crop (forecasts of 500-700 TMT).

Japan bought 165 TMT of wheat in it's regular Thursday tender with the majority of that US wheat. Afghanistan has become the latest buyer to enter the ring, tendering for 200,000 MT of wheat.

It looks like Argentina's crop prospects are improving, so too are those in Brazil where a record soybean crop looks likely to be on the cards.

In the US Plains, extreme cold overnight will give way to a rapid warm up by the weekend. QT Weather predict temperatures in the upper 60's in Oklahoma by Sunday night, a stunning contrast to the all-time state record low of -27 set this morning!

China got some snow this week, but drought in the north is said to be expanding. Europe and Australia are warming up, the Black Sea is looking pretty good under a blanket of snow but India is hot and dry.

The grains aren't getting too much support from outside markets today, crude is lower as ideas fade of any acute disruptions to supplies via the Suez Canal. The dollar is firmer and Wall Street expected to start lower.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans and corn mixed, wheat 5-7c easier.