Morning Vibe

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 09:49 | Categorized as

08/02/11 -- There's not a lot doing on the overnight trade with wheat down 2-3c, beans up 2-4c and corn either side of unchanged. There isn't much change on the currency front either, with the pound at 1.61 against the dollar and just over 1.18 against the euro.

It looks like we maybe will tread a bit of water ahead of tomorrow's USDA numbers. What will that bring? Who can tell, maybe tighter US ending stocks but larger South American production?

Private Brazilian firms now estimate the soybean crop there at 69-71 MMT, versus the USDA's Jan estimate of 67.5 MMT. In Argentina although private firms have been upping their soybean production estimates of late, the USDA were probably overstated last time at 50.5 MMT.

China are due back to work tomorrow after Chinese New Year celebrations.

Iraq bought 300,000 MT of wheat yesterday, of which 250,000 MT was Australian and 50,000 MT US origin. They then promptly issued another tender for a further 100,000 MT.

Turkey are also expected to buy 300,000 MT of wheat this week, with Algeria back in again too. Japan are shopping for almost 165,000 MT of US/Canadian wheat in their regular weekly tender on Thursday.

On the weather front "Black Sea wheat received moderate-heavy rain/snow Sunday, more is expected; northern wheat area Volga and Black Earth are already wet, and expecting more heavy precipitation in the week ahead; soil moisture keeps improving," say Martell Crop Projections.

That sounds like a significant improvement then.

Warmer weather in Europe is coaxing winter wheat out of dormancy. The seven day forecast calls for temperatures 2-6 degrees F above normal for most of England, northern France and Germany, they add.