The Morning Vibe

24/02/11 -- It's all about Libya and the Middle East again this morning, with Brent crude coming close to breaking through USD120/barrel at one stage before falling back to around USD116-117/barrel, still around USD5/barrel higher on the day.

Unlike the 2007/08 price spike in oil that took grains with it, the trade seems to view things differently this time round. At least for now.

Reuters are reporting of two French barley boats en route to Libya looking for new homes. One has apparently been redirected to Lebanon and "discussions are continuing about a new destination" for the other, they say.

Almost all the high profile tenders coming through at the moment are for Middle Eastern and North African destinations, looking to bolster their stocks, but who wants to go there under these circumstances?

Even a seemingly "safe" bet like Saudi Arabia, currently tendering for 275,000 MT of wheat in five lots for arrival between May 10th and June 30th, is facing calls for a "day of rage" say Agrimoney this morning.

That could turn out to be an expensive problem to have for the winning bidder, as who knows what the political situation will be next week, let alone in May and June?

London and Paris wheat have opened lower again this morning. The overnight Globex trade, after earlier trading lower, tried to stage a mid-session rally but has subsequently fallen away again. Wheat is currently down around 8c with beans 16c easier and corn off around 6-8c.