USDA - The Salient Points

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 13:51 | Categorized as

09/02/11 -- Corn got a large bullish boost from the USDA today when they dropped 2010/11 US ending stocks from 745 million bushels last month to 675 million this time round, more than 50 million below what the trade was expecting. That helped trim world corn ending stocks from 127 MMT last month to 122.5 MMT, a 37-year low and the 4th tightest in the past 50 years. The Argentine corn crop was dropped 1.5 MMT to 22 MMT.

US wheat ending stocks were left unchanged at 818 million bushels, against expectations for a reduction of around 8-10 million. World ending stocks fell slightly to 177.8 MMT, there were no major alterations to production around the globe.

US soybean ending stocks were also left unchanged at 140 million bushels, against ideas of a small reduction. The Argentine crop was cut 1 MMT to 49.5 MMT, but the Brazilian crop was raised by a similar amount to 68.5 MMT.

So there it is, majorly bullish for corn as US ethanol production continues to increase. Neutral to even slightly negative for wheat and soybeans, but corn is expected to start sharply higher and drag everything else with it.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 20-30c, wheat and soybeans up 10-12c.